Anthony Frausto-Robledo ([email protected])

6 Jan 2002

 

MWSF: Annual Predictions for MacWorld Keynote

One of the most fun things to do each MacWorld is predict what Steve Jobs will be unveiling during his exciting keynote speeches. During the last few years the percentage of accurate predictions have fluctuated some but generally have been solid.

A MacWorld Keynote Like No Other?

What makes this keynote so hard to predict, aside from what is obvious, is that there is an additional one hour of time planned for the event. This clearly signals three large announcements and since most of us know that two of them have to do with new CPU designs the third is a mystery item. It could be software or hardware. It may be a digital lifestyle device.

Keynote Predictions

1. Jobs will likely start the keynote talking about the performance and market's reaction to the new Apple Stores. He will mention that the stores are receiving the keynote signal live and may speak to the store audience directly showcasing the unique ability for a major CEO to talk directly to customers live. He no doubt mention that Apple exceeded its role-out plans by opening 27 stores by year end. It's not a product but it's a prediction nonetheless.

2. I predict Jobs' first major product announcement will be the new Power Mac towers. My money is on Apollo G4-based machines (1.2 - 1.6Ghz range) in slightly altered enclosures which match the new displays I believe Apple will introduce as well. The killer feature on the new Power Macs will be the use of HyperTransport technology, a bus technology oriented at chip-to-chip communication. This will make the dual machines slaughter Pentium 4 and AMD Athlons. I seriously believe Apple will overtake Wintel Monday on the performance front.

3. The fruit of Raycer Graphics. While I am not sure where this may come into play, my crystal ball tells me the time is coming for the fruit of this important corporate buyout to emerge. My hope is with a special graphics accelerator that works with the HyperTransport architecture or a custom accelerator for Apple's Quartz technology to speed up Aqua screen drawing speeds. If Raycer doesn't come this time it will come for sure when Apple introduces G5 machines.

4. GigaWire. Jobs will go into this technology which has been rumored to be many different things. I suspect it is an improved speed FireWire that may also be wireless, enabling the sending of video signals and streaming video from CPU's to remote flatpanel displays. This may be where Raycer comes into play. GigaWire may also be a technology enabling "clustering" of Power Macs or any Mac for that matter into a compute farm.

5. Say "modular". The highlight of the show is no doubt the replacement of the iMac line of computers. But I don't suspect this iMac 2 will be based on the concept of a computer the way we all know it. It will based on the concept of a digital hub. This touches on a concept I call "realm-based" computing (see related story). I don't have any detailed predictions here because I haven't studied the metrics of the value-network targeted for a true digital hub device.

That being said such a replacement for the iMac may be less burdened to the traditional educational value network as that market is changing its focus from computer labs to remote, flexible laptop-based computing paradigms. Hence, such a device is less dependent on the same digital realms (see related story).

6. iMovie 3. I predicted this last summer but it never came. iMovie is Apple's premier demonstration app for the "digital lifestyle" concept in computing. Any new machine aimed at the iMac class will introduce the third major version of this award-winning application.

7. New Apple Displays. I believe Jobs will intro new flat panel displays with new capabilities possibly related to GigaWire and the fruit of Raycer. It has been rumored that Apple will introduce an HDTV ready screen suitable for both DVD movie playing and serious content creation editing. Such a device would be targeted at both professional graphics folks and the new buyers of the iMac 2. What? you say. The iMac 2 won't come with it's own screen?

Yes. A true digital hub device could possibly ship with a detachable screen, thus allowing a DVD to play on it in the living room or bedroom while the video signal is beamed to it from the hub in the den or kitchen. New Apple Displays may be capable of receiving GigaWire signals.

8. The commercials. Many years ago back when Jobs was not yet iCEO I wrote a concept TV commercial for a digital family (lifestyle) with distributed computing experiences. Back then I was very much of the mindset that the concept behind the ill-fated Jonathan computer concept was the way to go for Apple. Jonathan was a fully modular-based vision of computing centered on a new bus technology (hardwired of course). The two key features of such a vision are a powered bus technology and the modular way of thinking which involves software as well as hardware. Jonathan was way ahead of its time because in the late 80's there was no Internet and hence no reason for distributed computing experiences in the home.

Jobs' commercials for the new iMac 2 device may feature this vision of the device as a true digital hub, powering multi-user computing experiences. Instead of using multi-iMacs to share the digital life style it may be much more compelling to sell GigaWire-based Apple displays.

9. A new digital PhonePDA. I don't believe this will be introduced but I believe Apple is working on it. The iWalk is clearly a hoax because the digital phone and the PDA have been on a collision course for well over a year. However, these devices are a form of "disruptive technology", ultimately replacing the PC over time. The reason why they will win out is because the way in which we use the PC is not "realm-based" compliant and all new successful digital devices will need to be realm-based. The Palm Pilot was successful precisely because it was realm-based.

Closing Thoughts

There are nine (9) major predictions here, the last one being that something will not show up yet but eventually. Last time (NY) we were 4 for 8, down from 5 for 8 at MWSF a year ago. It would be nice to do better but as long as the stuff is cool and powerful...who cares if it's different. I would personally like to be wrong on the G4 vs G5 prediction.

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Apple to introduce "Realm-based" Computing?

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